if the national debt limit isn't raised, the USA will go into default and if the USA defaults, then a whole lot of very wealthy people will be in danger of losing a whole lot of their wealth. Think military-industrial complex, think Big Oil, think of all the Pharmaceutical companies tied to Medicare and Medicaid, think of all the fat cats playing it safe with huge investments in government bonds. Think also of what will happen to the almighty Dow -- a US default will shred investor confidence and the market will drop to the floor -- think financial China Syndrome. Think also of what will happen to the dollar when the Renminbi takes over as the international currency of choice. As the dollar tanks, so will the wealth of all those wealthy puppet masters.It's taken a while, but the power brokers have finally figured it out. From the NY Times this morning:
As I've said, it's the Democrats, NOT the Republicans, who are holding all the cards in this little game, only they don't get it. Like the bull in the bullfight, they've been distracted by the flashing red cape and lost track of the real target. Instead of offering more and more "compromises," they need to take advantage of the superior position they are actually in and force the hand of an opposition that is currently preoccupied with outsmarting itself. Which is why, as I see it, there is only one logical thing for the Democrats to do: offer a "clean" bill to the Senate, a simple yes or no choice on raising the debt limit; pass it in the Senate; and watch the House Republicans squirm. The Tea Party will cave, guaranteed. A vote against raising the limit at this late date would forever alienate them from their real power base, the ultra conservative oligarchs who have the most to lose from a "no" decision.The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which spent millions of dollars last year helping elect Republicans to Congressional seats, is struggling to convince the House it helped to build that the debt ceiling must be increased. The chamber and other business groups have pressed with increasing urgency for Congress to raise the maximum amount that the government can borrow. They have cataloged the consequences of default at meetings, parties and dinners and over drinks. . .
“I think they’re very pleased with the antigovernment inclinations of the Tea Party Republicans when it comes to taxes and regulation,” said David Axelrod, one of the president’s chief political advisers. “But now we have a situation where the integrity of the economy and the U.S. financial system is at stake, and they’re being hoisted on their own petards.”
Then, and only then, will it be time for Obama and his constituents to draft sane legislation to deal with the deficit and other economic issues (such as jobs jobs jobs), but on their terms, free from Tea Party extortion. True, they don't control the House. But they won't need to control the House. If the Republicans want budget cuts, the Democrats will be only too happy to oblige, but the cuts will be based on a reasonable assessment of our situation and not right wing "big government" paranoia. And any cuts could be matched by reasonable tax increases for the wealthy, along with reasonable controls on their financial behavior. If the Republicans don't like it, they will be free to vote it down. But that would mean voting against the budget cuts they themselves have been demanding. In other words, the tables will be turned -- and the tail will no longer be wagging the dog.
What happens if the House does not approve such a plan? Forget political ramifications. What feasible path forward exists should the House not vote to raise the debt ceiling? Former President Clinton suggested that President Obama could do it unilaterally and let the courts decide whether or not he has the power to do it unilterally,
ReplyDeleteExcellent question, Anonymous. For one thing, if the plan gets voted down it will because Republicans have failed to support it. Which means they will have to take the heat when the economy goes into a nosedive. That was never part of their plan. They were hoping to stack the deck in such a way that the Dems, and particularly Obama, would be held responsible, by refusing to make deep enough cuts, or insisting on tax increases. By offering a "clean" bill, the Dems would be taking all these issues off the table, and the Reps would thus be forced to come out either in favor of or against saving "civilization as we know it."
ReplyDeleteIt's like when a lawyer tells the defendant to cut out all the hemming and hawing and simply answer yes or no, please.
For another thing, at this point I see NO other options for the Democratic leadership, who are already offering way too much, which is going to put their fellow Dems on the spot, risking a situation where THEY could take the heat if they refuse to go along.
If Obama tried to invoke his Constitutional powers and raise the ceiling unilaterally, there'd be a huge outcry among Republicans and possibly a very long delay as efforts were made to take the issue to the Supreme Court. However, if Obama were to COMBINE this threat with a "clean" bill, implying that a failure to pass the latter might FORCE him to invoke the former, that would put maximum pressure on the Republicans in the House (assuming that would be needed).
Bottom line: there is no way to guarantee a good outcome under the circumstances. But imo the "clean bill" option has the best chance of success.
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