Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Some Bin Laden Scenarios

I've been trying very hard to find some way of making sense out of the Bin Laden stories emanating from the White House and sorry, but they don't make sense. I say this with a large measure of distress, because, first of all, I badly want to believe justice has been served and Bin Laden has been taken out. By whatever means, that's fine with me. Secondly, the last thing I want to do is encourage the usual conspiracy theorists, especially the wide-eyed and poorly informed "9/11 Truth" believers, whose ideas about the 9/11 attacks border on lunacy and are clearly the result of mass hysteria.

So let me make myself clear from the start. NO, I do not think this is a government conspiracy. NO, I do NOT think it has anything to do with 9/11. NO, I don't think the Jessica Lynch story of Bin Laden hiding behind his wife and firing on the Seals, who then heroically took him out in self defense, was concocted by Barack Obama as part of some effort to make the event seem more heroic or to help him get re-elected. My reason for rejecting that possibility is that Obama isn't stupid. Contradictory reports make the whole thing sound suspicious (which it certainly is) and thus have the potential to be a huge embarrassment for the administration, which is going to have a lot of explaining to do after all the celebrating has died down. After all he's been through with the "birther" nonsense, Obama has to have been extra concerned with fomenting yet more conspiracy theories, so conspiring to lie in such an obvious way would have been the last thing on his to-do list.

So NO, I do NOT think Obama is evil. NO I do not think he's duplicitous. However, YES, I DO think he's naive and easily manipulated. But you knew that already, if you've been paying attention to how easy it's been for the Republicans to play him since he took office.

I have no interest in producing yet another conspiracy theory, especially since I don't think there was a conspiracy, at least not a conspiracy of the usual sort. I see it as more of a fiasco, followed by some fumbling attempts to save face. However, I do NOT think we are getting the whole story and I DO think something went very wrong with what must have already been a pretty lame plan to begin with. Here are some scenarious that DO make sense, at least more sense than what the White House has been putting out:

1. The CIA get some information from the usual dubious sources and on the basis of totally circumstantial evidence (they admit this) decide there is a chance Bin Laden is living in a certain compound in Pakistan. With White House approval they send in the Seals, who engage in a firefight, then make their way to the third floor, where they encounter an unarmed male who might or might not be OBL. They take him into custody unharmed, take photos, electronically mail them to CIA headquarters, where it is determined that a. it IS Bin Laden or b. it is NOT Bin Laden. Assuming a. for the moment, they summarily execute him, presumably as ordered, and arrange for a rapid burial at sea, since an autopsy would reveal the manner in which he was killed. They concoct a story about him having a weapon and resisting, rather than having to admit he was executed.

2. Same as above, except it turns out NOT to be Bin Laden. In this case, a decision is made to execute him anyhow and tell the President and the world that it WAS Bin Laden, since telling the truth would be enormously embarrassing. He has to be buried at sea because otherwise their deception would be revealed. This would have to have been a CIA decision because it was the CIA that would have verified the phony DNA match.

In neither case would they be able to produce a photo of a man with a hole in his head, because it's very unlikely that an unarmed man would have been shot immediately, before his identity could be verified. That makes no sense, as I see it. And after they executed him there would have been no reason to take a picture. So if you see a picture of Bin Laden with a bullet in his head, you'll know I'm wrong. And I'll breathe a huge sigh of relief, because I really want to believe their story, whether it makes sense or not.


  1. Don't you see some link with the recent capture and release of a senior CIA agent, the protests by Pakistani about drone bombings, the Arab uprisings, and the catastrophic economical situation of the USA ?

    What chances would you give to a joint operation by the secret services of the USA and Pakistan, who fooled even their respective armies and politicians, to pretend having killed Ben Laden - who is long dead - thus making the US army leave Pakistan and removing the "democratic" pressure on the regime, and the USA leave Afghanistan with a "Mission Accomplished" from that unwinnable war ? With the cooperation of Saudi Arabia who will (pretend to) take the rest of the Ben Laden family and remove a thorn in their shoes ? A win-win deal for every-body.

  2. "Don't you see some link with the recent capture and release of a senior CIA agent, the protests by Pakistani about drone bombings, the Arab uprisings, and the catastrophic economical situation of the USA ?"

    No I don't see any such links. There is a temptation to assume all sorts of grand schemes by powerful agents conspiring with one another, but as I see it, such schemes actually have very little chance of succeeding and intelligent leaders know enough to steer clear of them. Much more likely are situations where wishful thinkers get in over their head, with all the "best intentions" and when things go wrong are unwilling or unable to admit the truth about how they let themselves be deceived. I think this is the case with Obama, very very sadly.

  3. I think you do the 911 "truthers" too harshly and dismiss some at least of what they say way too easily. But that's a whole other kettle of fish, all of which has stunk all along. As for Bin Laden, I think you're making it more complicated than it is, and that is what will lead you and others astray from the actual truth of the matter.

    Obama simply ordered a "hit" on Osama, probably for near future and 2012 political reasons. I think you seem to be part of some misguided and naive "liberal/progressive" idea that the US government is running rather upfront the way the constitution says it should. I don't think Obama is anywhere near in real control of anything. He's just a patsy for higher and more secretive interests and agents.

    All of that goes into yet another direction, but I find it odd and sad that Obama voters (of which I'm ashamed to admit I was one of), just can't come to grips with the fact that Obama has gone back or seriously fucked up every single promise he made while running. But by the time any politician of either of the two main, and only viable parties in this country, get to where he got during the campaign and since, he/she has already sold his soul many times over. Obama to me is just a darker skinned George W. Bush. The beat goes on.

    These ridiculous titles don't mean much anymore, "president." Change we can believe in became the same old crap.

    I really wish people would stop defending this guy. Especially those who voted for him and keep acting like he's naive or an innocent or misguided. He's been doing the will of Wall Street and the Pentagon since his swearing in. And it seems no matter how many times he either indirectly or directly (through others) gives you all the finger and calls you fucking retards, the underlying truth of his presidency and the way things really operate are lost to you. It's mass self-denial on an epic scale.

  4. "I think you do the 911 "truthers" too harshly and dismiss some at least of what they say way too easily."

    Some of what they say makes sense, admittedly. It's possible that Bush and Cheney might have gotten wind of the 9/11 plot and deliberatly suppressed the info for political purposes. I strongly doubt it, but at least it's a rational theory. But the notion that the towers were taken down by a planned implosion is NOT rational, nor are the arguments that the Pentagon was attacked by a missle and not a hijacked plane. Sorry, but that sort of thing is sheer lunacy and I find it very disturbing that anyone outside a looney bin could take it seriously.

    As for the rest, I do happen to think that Obama is turning out to be a very weak and easily manipulated president and the Bin Laden fiasco supports such a view. Even if they did get Bin Laden, the whole thing has been handled in such an incompetent and dishonest manner that even his most ardent supporters are going to have serious second thoughts about a second run.

  5. I do not believe most of what the 911 truther movement does. I do not dispute the scientific and logical evidence. I put 911 in the same category as the attack of Pearl Harbor. I think Roosevelt and others probably knew the attack was inevitable, and LET it happen. For larger and more evident, desired results. Back then, our entry into WWII, for 911, to set up, over a decade, a super strong US military foothold in the region. For what exact purposes for the latter, time will still tell. It's an ongoing tale.


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